Today’s Market View – Beowulf Mining; Condor Gold; Greatland Gold; Kavango Resources and more…
SP Angel . Morning View . Thursday 10 06 21
Demand for gold ETF continue to rise as market awaits US inflation data
MiFID II exempt information – see disclaimer below – FCA looks to scrap MiFID research rules on small-caps in UK competitiveness drive (Investment Week)
We are raising funds for a private Graphene producer – EIS scheme approval applied for
The company is selling a number of graphene products to industrial and retail customers.
· Sales of certain products have sold out unexpectedly quickly.
· The company wishes to fund a ramp up in production to get ahead of demand and to develop markets for a number of new, graphene products
· The business is also able to upgrade graphite to a higher grade/specifications using its process – rolling out this process also requires funding
· The company has also applied for EIS scheme approval from HMRC
· Please let me know if you wish to invest in the company
*SP Angel’s role is limited to making introductions and interested parties should be aware that investment in a private company can present certain risks not present in listed companies (e.g. limited or no liquidity and no rules compelling disclosure of information to investors). This offer is open to professional investors only and is not offered to retail investors.
Beowulf Mining* (AIM:BEM) – Fennoscandian awarded €791k from Business Finland
Botswana Diamonds (AIM:BOD) – Drilling at Thorny River likely to resume in August
Condor Gold* (AIM:CNR) – Infill drilling underway at Mestiza
Greatland Gold (AIM:GGP) – Drilling continues to expand Havieron
Kavango Resources (LON:KAV) – Drilling to commence at KSZ
Mkango Resources* (LON:MKA) – Mkango amplifies its plans for a rare earths separation plant in Poland
Thungela Resources (LON:TGA) – Chinese prioritisation of coal over decarbonisation driving coal prices to
Global junior mining companies raise record $10.2bn in past 12 months
Global junior miners raised a record amount of share capital in the past twelve months, according to Jefferies.
Explorers raised $10.2bn to the end of May, with precious metals companies accounting for 44% of the capital raised.
Copper / Chile – Election frontrunner wants to align mining rules with neighbouring nations
Daniel Jadue, the current front-runner in polls for November’s election wants to align mining rules with Peru, Argentina and Bolivia so they don’t compete for investments.
Jadue also says he plans to renegotiate with foreign companies to take stakes in their asserts in what would be the industry’s biggest disruption since the 1970s.
If Jadue wins office he would become Chile’s first ever Communist party president, and posing an increase in regulatory risk for global miners operating there.
Iron ore – Vale decommissioned Brazil dam at ‘imminent risk of collapsing’
Vale’s decommissioned Xingu dam is at imminent risk of collapsing, according to the Regional Labour Department in Minas Gerais state.
The Xingu tailings dam is situated in the town of Mariana, which has already been devastated by a 2015 dam rupture in 2015 killing 19 people.
The dam stopped receiving mining waste in 1998, although Vale still employs workers there to monitor its stability ahead of decommissioning.
Labour auditors have evacuated the local area, saying that a potential collapse at Xingu could happen because of liquefaction (Reuters).
Apple – in talks with CATL and BYD on the supply of batteries for the new Apple electric vehicle
The battery manufacturing must be in the US in accordance with the White House drive to onshore manufacturing in the US (Reuters).
CATL is the world’s largest Li-ion battery manufacturer with a target of 230GWh for 2021. BYD ranked No 4 has capacity of around 60GWh rising to 100GWh (justauto).
BYD is now manufacturing its new Blade LFP battery with increased range and safety (insideevs).
US – Inflation data to be released later today will be closely watched by markets with estimates for the rate to accelerate to 4.7% (3.5% ex food and energy) in May.
10y sovereign bond yields slipped below the 1.5% and trade around 1.49% this morning suggesting investors are less than concerned over rising inflation risks.
China – The Chinese and US commerce ministers agreed to push forward trade and investment links in the first call under the new US administration, Bloomberg reports.
The two “exchanged views frankly and pragmatically on relevant issues and mutual concerns,” according to a Chinese government statement.
This is the third call between senior officials in recent weeks, after Vice Premier Liu He spoke with US Trade Representative Katerine Tai and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
Separately, President Biden lifted Trump-era bans on TikTok and WeChat.
Credit growth is largely steady in May after a slowdown in the previous month as the central bank tries to scale back stimulus gradually.
Aggregate Financing (CNY bn): 1,920 v 1,851 in April and 2,001 est.
New Yuan Loans (CNY bn): 1,500 v 1,470 in April and 1,400 est.
M2 Money Supply (%yoy): 8.3 v 8.1 in April and 8.1 est.
Japan – Producer price inflation climbed the most in more than 10 years in May reflecting rising input costs.
As seen elsewhere, manufacturers have been reluctant to pass on higher costs onto consumers with demand still recovering following the pandemic.
Core CPI that excludes food and energy prices was actually down on the previous year in April (-0.2%yoy) with estimates for the measure to post another negative reading in May (-0.3%).
PPI (%yoy): 4.9 v 3.8 (revised from 3.6) in April and 4.5 est.
ECB – The central bank is expected to reiterate its ultra-loose monetary policy stance as the region is starting to emerge from a recession and with vaccination programme goals months away from targeted levels.
Unlike in the US, inflationary pressures have been less pronounced with significantly lower expected economic growth rates.
Euro-area inflation is currently around 2%, marginally above the ECB’s goal while GDP is expected to grow 4.2% in 2021 and only hitting pre-pandemic level next year.
In the US, inflation is expected to have climbed to 4.7% in May with the economy forecast to have recovered all its losses this year with an estimated growth rate of 6.6%.
UK – Low interest rates, lack of supply and a temporary stamp duty holiday push UK house prices higher, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors.
The gap between buyer inquiries and sale instructions climbed to its widest since 2013.
Prices increase by around 11% this year through May, the fastest pace since 2014, a separate reported by Nationwide showed.
UK house prices are reported to be rising in all regions with the economy performing better expected and low interest rates.
The BoE Chief Economist has warned that rising house prices are worsening inequality with prices rising by 11% to May (Nationwide Building Society).
HK – considers shorter hotel quarantine for fully-vaccinated visitors
US$1.2167/eur vs 1.2179/eur yesterday. Yen 109.52/$ vs 109.43/$. SAr 13.721/$ vs 13.575/$. $1.409/gbp vs $1.418/gbp. 0.774/aud vs 0.775/aud. CNY 6.388/$ vs 6.394/$.
Gold US$1,883/oz vs US$1,892/oz yesterday
Gold ETFs 101.1moz vs US$100.9moz yesterday
Platinum US$1,145/oz vs US$1,161/oz yesterday
Palladium US$2,774/oz vs US$2,803/oz yesterday
Silver US$27.66/oz vs US$27.59/oz yesterday
Copper US$ 9,895/t vs US$9,974/t yesterday
Aluminium US$ 2,447/t vs US$2,452/t yesterday
Nickel US$ 17,930/t vs US$18,145/t yesterday
Zinc US$ 2,994/t vs US$3,029/t yesterday
Lead US$ 2,192/t vs US$2,196/t yesterday
Tin US$ 31,125/t vs US$31,110/t yesterday
Oil US$71.7/bbl vs US$72.6/bbl yesterday
Brent Crude prices are expected to average US$68/bbl in the third quarter this year according to the EIA in its latest monthly outlook, raising the forecast by US$5/bbl barrel from the previous projection
Despite the COVID crisis in India, global oil demand remained higher than supply in May, which extended the global inventory drawdown of crude and fuels, although the withdrawal is estimated by the EIA at 1.2MMbopd last month, compared with average monthly withdrawals of 2.1MMboopd since June 2020
EIA’s latest price outlook is close or slightly below current levels and “incorporates the recent price increases and our forecast of mostly balanced oil markets in the coming months,”
Global production is set to increase more rapidly in the second half of this year to catch up with rising demand, according to the EIA.
Earlier this week, the API reported a draw in crude oil inventories of 2.1MMbbls yesterday for the week ending 4 June
Last week, the API reported a draw in oil inventories of 5.4MMbbls after analysts had predicted a draw half that size of 2.1MMbbls
Crude oil inventories have fallen by more than 14MMbbls since the start of this year, according to API data, but are still up 43MMbbls barrels since January 2020
While crude oil inventories fell yet again this week, US oil production fell to an average of 10.8MMbopd for the week ending 28 May, according to the latest data from the Energy Information Administration
This is down 200,000bopd from the week before
The API reported a build in gasoline inventories of 2.405MMbbls for the week ending 4 June, on top of the previous week’s 2.51MMbbl build
Distillate stocks saw an increase in inventories this week of 3.752MMbbls for the week, on top of last week’s 1.585MMbbl increase
Cushing inventories fell this week by 420,000bbls
Natural Gas US$3.161/mmbtu vs US$3.119/mmbtu yesterday
Iron ore 62% Fe spot (cfr Tianjin) US$205.9/t vs US$200.5/t
Chinese steel rebar 25mm US$798.7/t vs US$798.4/t
Thermal coal (1st year forward cif ARA) US$82.4/t vs US$81.0/t
Coking coal swap Australia FOB US$146.0/t vs US$148.0/t
Cobalt LME 3m US$42,535/t vs US$43,535/t
NdPr Rare Earth Oxide (China) US$73,418/t vs US$73,595/t
Lithium carbonate 99% (China) US$12,680/t vs US$12,670/t
China Spodumene Li2O 5%min CIF US$650/t vs US$640/t
Ferro-Manganese European Mn78% min US$1,807/t vs US$1,809/t
China Tungsten APT 88.5% FOB US$270/t vs US$270/t
China Graphite Flake -194 FOB US$515/t vs US$515/t
Europe Vanadium Pentoxide 98% $8.3/lb vs US$8.3/lb
Europe Ferro-Vanadium 80% $39.75/kg vs US$39.75/kg
India set to install 20GW by 2025
India is expected to install just over 20GW of wind power capacity between 2021 and 2025 according to the Global Wind Energy Council, a growth of nearly 50%.
The impact of Covid-19 lockdown laws have resulted in only 1.1GW of 3.3GW being installed over 2020.
Projects totalling 10.3GW are expected to drive installations up until 2023 with another 10GW of capacity expected post-2023.
UK – government has announced no more major public contracts for businesses without net zero goals
The collective turnover of businesses signed up to the Race to Zero campaign through the FNZ Standard with CBN Expert in fact just broke the billion-pound barrier.
Businesses without clear carbon reduction targets will not be able to bid for major government contracts worth more than £5 million from September.
The UK government has announced firms that seek public sector contracts will have to publish carbon reduction plans stating their current greenhouse gas emissions, including power consumption, staff travel and fuel usage.
Umicore – Automotive manufacturers may have to have to pay more to recycle cheaper batteries that reach their end of life.
Hopefully Umicore’s statement will persuade battery manufacturers to produce better and more recycleable batteries.
Beowulf Mining* (AIM:BEM) 3.8p, Mkt cap £31m – Fennoscandian awarded €791k from Business Finland
Beowulf reports that its wholly-owned Finnish subsidiary has been granted €791,000 by Business Finland.
The grant funding is equivalent to 50% of the 3-year €1.6m budget for Fennoscandian’s ‘Spheronisation and Purification of Natural Graphite for the European Lithium-Ion Battery Market’ project.
The work is part of the BATCircle2.0 (Finland-based Circular Ecosystem of Battery Metals) consortium which has been granted €10.8m by Business Finland as part of a total funding budget of €19.3m.
The aim of the BATCircle2.0 consortium is to create a competitive and sustainable European battery industry through collaboration and joint research between companies and research organisations.
The objective of Fennoscandian’s Project is to develop a chemical free technological solution, utilising renewable energy, to spheronise and purify graphite within a Finnish industrial ecosystem, for use in the manufacture of lithium-ion battery anodes.
The company anticipates the project to validate a process to support progress to a Bankable Feasibility Study for construction of a commercial scale unit within three to five years.
Kurt Budge, CEO commented: “We are proud to be part of the Finnish battery ecosystem and collaborating with Finnish universities, research institutions and companies, all wanting to play their part in addressing the Climate Emergency.”
“The Scoping Study for our Aitolampi graphite project is due to be completed in the coming weeks and we continue to work with Epsilon Advance Materials on the establishment of a Strategic Processing Hub for producing pre-cursor anode material.”
*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker for Beowulf Mining
Botswana Diamonds (AIM:BOD) 1.10p, Mkt Cap £8.3m – Drilling at Thorny River likely to resume in August
Following last month’s announcement that a second area of thickening of the kimberlite dyke (known as a ‘blow’) had been identified at its Thorny River site in Limpopo Province, South Africa, Botswana Diamonds reports that specialists analysing geophysical and drilling data have modelled the potential volumes of kimberlite.
The estimates range between a potential “300-600,000 tonnes in aggregate, which is up to a three-fold increase in the volume following the modelling of the first blow”.
The company says that it expects to have results from its work in May 2021 “available by the end of July, which will determine geological and grade continuity”.
Botswana Diamonds also says that “based on the historical grade of …[the] …Thorny River / Marsfontain dykes … [at] …60 carats per hundred tonnes (cpht). … [following receipt of the May results] … we plan to drill the potential mineralisation between the two kimberlite blows to test our belief that the two blows potentially join. This will also refine our estimate of volumes”.
Chairman, John Teeling, commented that “The extension of the blow eastwards toward the blow discovered in earlier drilling offers the tantalising prospect of joining the two into one orebody. We expect to drill the area between the two blows in August”.
Conclusion: Botswana Diamonds is planning to resume drilling at Thorny River in August in order to test whether two areas of thickening of the of the kimberlite connect – potentially increasing volumes.
Condor Gold* (AIM:CNR) 47.5p, Mkt Cap £62m – Infill drilling underway at Mestiza
Condor Gold reports that an 8,500m drilling programme is underway at the site of the proposed Mestiza open-pit, located approximately 3km from the permitted La India plant site in Nicaragua.
Around 600m of the programme, designed to upgrade the existing inferred portion of the mineral resources at Mestiza to the indicated level which would qualify them for inclusion in future pre- or full feasibility assessments, has now been completed.
Currently, indicated, open-pittable resources on the Tatiana Vein at Mestiza amount to 36,000oz of gold within 92kt of ore at an average grade of 12.1g/t gold. Additional inferred resources within the Mestiza Vein set amount to 85,000 oz of gold contained within 341kt at an average grade of 7.7g/t, including 220kt within the Tatiana Vein at an average grade of 6.6g/t (containing 47,000oz).
The Mestiza Vein set is “open along strike and down dip and has the potential to be materially increased with further drilling”.
In addition, Condor Gold reports on strategic mining studies, undertaken by consultants SRK (USA) for the development of the Mestiza pit.
The study “has expanded on the separation of the ultimate pit by phase, now representing 9 phases compared to 4 phases previously envisioned” and identified “a 500tpd schedule with low grade stockpiling … [as delivering] …the best stand alone economics”.
This configuration delivers 499kt of ore to the plant at an average diluted grade of 5.37g/t gold and generates approximately 13.3mt of waste rock.
Chairman and CEO, Mark Child, confirmed that “The schedules developed indicate a potential feed to the processing plant estimated at 499kt, at a diluted head grade of 5.37 g/t gold with potential to produce 86,000 oz gold”.
Condor Gold notes that “these mining scenarios are part of ongoing work being done by Condor to optimize the Project which has not yet been finalized and so do not replace the 2019 MRE or the technical report entitled “Technical Report on the La India Gold Project, Nicaragua, December 2014″”.
Conclusion: Infill drilling is underway at Mestiza in order to help upgrade at least a part of the existing inferred portion of the mineral resource to the inferred level reducing risk, increasing geological confidence and qualifying more of the mineral inventory for inclusion in pre- or full feasibility level mine plans. In addition, preliminary mine scheduling for an open pit at Mestiza has identified an optimum rate of 500tpd. We look forward to further news as the drilling at Mestiza progresses.
*SP Angel act as sole broker to Condor Gold
Greatland Gold (AIM:GGP) 20.75p, Mkt Cap £857m – Drilling continues to expand Havieron
Greatland Gold draws attention to the report released by its partner, Newcrest Mining, to the ASX disclosing results from recent drilling at the Havieron gold/copper project in the Paterson region of W Australia.
Results are reported from seven additional holes, all of which intersected mineralisation, bringing the total drilled by Newcrest to 164,420m in 190 holes, and “High-grade intercepts below the December 2020 Initial Inferred Mineral Resource shell in the South East Crescent Zone and adjacent Breccia Zones, and around the Northern Breccia … continue to support the potential for resource expansion within the Havieron gold-copper mineralised system”.
The company says that the recent results “support the delivery of an Indicated Mineral Resource estimate in the South East Crescent Zone” which currently hosts an inferred resource of “18Mt @ 3.8g/t Au and 0.61% Cu“.
“Additional mineralisation identified in Northern Breccia Zone, highlighting the potential for resource extensions outside the existing resource shell … [ where the current inferred resources is estimated at] … 34Mt @ 1.1g/t Au and 0.15% Cu”
Among the drilling results highlighted today are:
Intersections of the South East Crescent and Breccia Zone of 34m at an average grade of 3.9g/t gold and 0.28% copper from a depth of 1,240m in hole HAD-086-W1 which also contained 99.7m averaging 2.5g/t gold and 0.85% copper from 1,308m depth; and
Also, in the South East Crescent and Breccia Zone, 108.5m averaging 1.7g/t gold and 0.43% copper from a depth of 1,221m in hole HAD-133 which also contained 85m at an average grade of 11.0g/t gold and 0.29% copper from 1,345m depth; and
An intersection of 47.8m, within the South East Crescent and Breccia Zone, averaging 2.3g/t gold and 0.28% copper from 620.2m depth in hole HAD-097-W3; and
An intersection of 55.2m, within the South East Crescent and Breccia Zone, averaging 2.5g/t gold and 0.65% copper from 501m depth in hole HAD-136; as well as
An intersection of 81.3m in the Northern Breccia which averaged 1.2 g/t gold and 0.04% copper at a depth of 1,009.7m in hole HAD-089-W1.
CEO of Greatland Gold, Shaun Day, commented that the latest results “add further extensions to the high-grade mineralisation at Havieron while evolving the deposit beyond the existing resource shell”.
He also confirmed that “Development on site continues at pace with surface earthworks nearing completion and the underground decline underway. As the Joint Venture progresses, ongoing exploration continues to enhance the potential scale of the gold-copper mineralised system at Havieron”.
Conclusion: Continuing drilling at Havieron continues to expand the resource potential while infill holes provide scope for future mineral resources estimates to upgrade the existing inferred resources.
Kavango Resources (LON:KAV) 4.7p, Mkt cap £16m – Drilling to commence at KSZ
Kavango reports that it is set to commence drilling on two proof of concept holes in the northern (Hukuntsi) section of the Kalahari Suture Zone, later this month.
The company aims to retrieve drill core from the bottom of the keels of the Karoo-age gabbros in the KSZ, with drill core from these holes expecting to provide physical evidence of the KSZ’s potential to host ‘Norilsk-style’ metal sulphide deposits.
Kavango has awarded a contract to Mindea Exploration and Drilling Services to design, engineer and drill a minimum of two 500m boreholes, with the programme expected to commence no later than the 30th of June 2021.
Mindea has agreed to accept payment for the Drill Contract half in cash and half in Kavango stock at an issue price of 4.53p per share.
Core samples are to be recovered for logging, whole rock geochemistry and assaying.
Downhole electromagnetic surveys to be performed by Spectral Geophysics, with an anticipated search radius of 300m-400m from the drill string.
Kavango is also developing its site, with a camp location agreed and two water sources identified.
Michael Foster, Chief Executive Officer of Kavango Resources, commented: Through the deployment of modern remote sensing technologies, sophisticated data analysis and persistent hard work, Kavango now aims to become the first company to retrieve drill core samples from the bottom of the “keels” of the Karoo-age gabbros here.”
“We believe core samples from the bottom of the gabbroic “keels” could provide us with the definitive proof we have been looking for that the KSZ could host one or more major deposits of nickel, copper and platinum group metals.”
Mkango Resources* (LON:MKA) 30p, Mkt cap £42m – Mkango amplifies its plans for a rare earths separation plant in Poland
(Mkango’s 75.5% subsidiary, Maginto Ltd holds a 25% stake in HyProMag which is a partner in the ‘Rare–Earth Recycling for E-Machines’ RaRE project)
In a conference call to investors and other interested parties yesterday, Mkango Resources amplified the announcement earlier this week of its plans for the development of a rare-earths separation plant in Poland and on its plans to work with the large local chemicals and fertiliser producer, Grupa Azoty, to develop the plant on a site adjacent to Azoty’s existing plant at Pulawy.
Mkango emphasised that it had considered a number of potential sites and possible partners and its decision in favour of Poland had been driven by its desire to secure as a low a position as possible on the cost-curve for rare earths production.
The adjacent Azoty plant, which has available land for possible future expansion, is able to provide acid reagents required for the rare earth purification process and is also able to utilise the waste products from the process minimising both the cost of the process and its output of non-productive waste materials.
The company declined to provide details of capital costs for the plant at this stage but confirmed that feasibility work is continuing in association with Grupa Azoty and independent experts in parallel with the detailed feasibility work on the development of the Songwe Hill deposit in Malawi. Completion of the feasibility work on the separation plant is expected as soon as possible after the work on Songwe Hill is completed in the final quarter of this year.
Mkango Resources emphasised that the Polish separation plant taken in conjunction with the mining of rare earths at Songwe Hill and the recycling of rare earth magnets by it partner HyProMag as part of the Rare Earth Recycling project, RaRE positioned it as a rare example of an integrated rare-earths producer.
Conclusion: Mkango Resources has amplified its plans for a rare-earths separation plant in Poland which position it as a future, integrated producer in the rare-earths industry with mine, production, product purification and recycling capacity. We look forward to the completion of the mining and separation plant studies for a greater insight into the technical and financial aspects of the developments.
*SP Angel act as Nomad and Broker to Mkango Resources
Thungela Resources (LON:TGA) 129p, Mkt Cap £252m – Chinese prioritisation of coal over decarbonisation driving coal prices to high levels
China is prioritising energy security over decarbonisation
China is prioritising energy security over decarbonisation according to a state meeting chaied by Premier Li Keqiang.
The nation declared a commitment to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2060 but continues to build coal fired generation capacity.
Strong demand for energy driven by strong GDP growth and exports is driving energy demand higher.
Hydropower plants are working on reduced capacity due to poor state planning on reservoir capacity. Remember China suffered its worst flooding for decades last year
Many coal carriers were still stuck off the Chinese coast waiting to unload with none of these coal-filled ships unloaded or customs cleared a month ago (SCMP)
Chinese imports of US coal have risen to around 700,000t/month but fall far short of Australian imports which were running at >3mt/month last October.
Conclusion: Coal prices are going higher and we suspect China may relax its unofficial ban on Australian coal to ease rising energy demand through the summer.
Not much creates more dissatisfaction among industry and the population than power blackouts. The state is seen as ultimately responsible and will do whatever it takes to ensure there is available power for manufacturers and the people.
Thungela Resources, the Anglo American coal business, may be less popular in an ESG portfolio than a rattlesnake in a lucky dip but the timing of its IPO looks good from a coal price perspective.
No.1 in Copper: “The winner of the 2020 Fastmarkets Apex contest for copper was the team at SP Angel comprising John Meyer, Sergey Raevskiy and Simon Beardsmore, with an accuracy score of 93.8%”
No1. In Gold: “SP Angel’s trio took the top spot for the gold price prediction throughout the year, with an accuracy score of 97.59%”
The SP Angel team also ranked 1st in Palladium, 3rd in Tin and 5th in Silver in the fourth quarter of 2020
John Meyer – [email protected] – 0203 470 0490
Simon Beardsmore – [email protected] – 0203 470 0484
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Sources of commodity prices
Gold, Platinum, Palladium, Silver- BGNL (Bloomberg Generic Composite rate, London)
Gold ETFs, Steel – Bloomberg
Copper, Aluminium, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Cobalt – LME
Oil Brent – ICE
Natural Gas, Uranium, Iron Ore – NYMEX
Thermal Coal – Bloomberg OTC Composite
Coking Coal – SSY
RRE – Steelhome
Lithium Carbonate, Ferro Vanadium, Tungsten, Spodumene, Ferro-Manganese, Graphite -Asian Metal
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